2018 US-Mexico Agenda

The Evolution of Lower Cost of Supply Through Innovation and the Development of New Technology

This panel examines market fundamentals for Mexico and moving gas from the US into Mexico. Demand is increasing due to the need for powergen in Mexico. Importing LNG, pipeline infrastructure and the new administration are all playing a role in the changing of the dynamics. Our experts will work to peel the onion back to discover and uncover some of the elements in this new and evolving world for the industry.

What remains the same / what changes under Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO):
•What is the overall strategy of the López Obrador administration on 
energy? Ideology vs. Pragmatism
•Will energy be a matter of national security in Mexico under the new administration? Nationalism vs. Markets?
•What will the role of labor be in the new energy landscape? 
•Clientelism in the Energy Sector and the Risks for the Regulatory Framework?
•What is the status of PEMEX in the López Obrador administration? A field of many actors or a field with one actor and many partners?
•The political feasibility of the new project: The new political composition of the country
What impacts could Mexico’s new government have on the country’s natural gas market?
•How big an impact will AMLO’s power sector proposals have on Mexican gas demand?
•Can domestic natural gas production be ramped up to cut US imports?
•Could the reintegration of CFE/Pemex change the gas market and capacity rights within Mexico?
•Will new pipeline transport infrastructure be developed in Mexico under the new government?

This panel discusses strategies and tools that can be leveraged to improve value for marketers/traders and counterparties conducting commercial natural gas transactions crossing the Border into Mexico. Concepts are provided from a provider of business-to-business trade receivables and credit management tools, a leading provider of natural gas and shale news/market data, including Mexico price and flow data, as well as a leading industry analyst with specific subject matter knowledge on the Mexico market.

1.) What US LNG exports may do to gas prices?
2.) How might the impact of increased interest rates and the correlation to the dollar impact Natgas exports to Mexico?
3.) What other trends in the United States could possibly impact future natural gas prices in Mexico?
4.) How long will prices at Waha remain depressed?
5.) Elaborate on what market spot market price indexes are available, which ones are primarily referenced in trades, and how are the indexes derived.
6.) How close are we to a clean slate of indices at Mexican locations that have robust participation and reporting?
7.) Are the exchanges going to embrace the market by offering futures and related contracts at Mexican delivery or transaction points (even if financially settled)? – What are the challenges and barriers to this?
8.) Do you see the Government supporting through incentives the further or an accelerated development of infrastructure? – If so, how might these be constructed?
9.) How can the players better “synch up” the supply and the adjacent infrastructure with the distribution needs? – Will there be a “bigger” plan imposed by the Government?
10.) What more can be done by authorities and participants to foster more liquidity in the Mexican gas market?

The energy market is constantly evolving as new production comes online and new markets open across North America and around the world. BP has had a long-term presence in Mexico – hear firsthand the experiences of a marketing & trading company in a country that is undergoing its own energy transition.

A substantial amount of new pipeline and storage infrastructure is required to serve growing demand for various markets across Mexico. New development and re-plumbing will take place from the Permian, through south Texas and within Mexico. This panel provides updates on key infrastructure projects moving U.S. supply to various Mexico markets. Perspectives are provided from operators and developers of projects, as well as a key industry analyst.

With the participation of outstanding representatives from Mexico's governmental agencies, this panel will offer a rich discussion about recent regulatory developments and expected trends in natural gas exploration and production, pipeline transportation and distribution, system operation, as well as marketing. Hot topics will include hydraulic fracturing, autonomy of the regulatory bodies under the AMLO administration, USMCA relevant contents, storage policy, effective open access, and more…

Mike Howard will share the history of Howard Energy Partners, how their Nueva Era pipeline was developed and what the future holds for the company.

1. Which price index will Mexico gas purchases rely upon? Near term and long term? HH, HSC, Waha, Aqua Dulce, other.
2. Do you see a local price index developing? What would need to happen for this to take place?
3. Will Mexico demand increase faster or slower than current market expectations? And will US production be able to keep pace?
4. Which sectors will experience the most demand growth? Residential, Commercial, Industrial? Which one will affect the market the most and in what ways? (i.e. – only 14% of households in Mexico have access to air conditioning.)
5. Will credit be a concern? If so, how will credit concerns with Mexican buyers be addressed? Will it impact the ability to do longer term sales agreements?
6. Do end users in Mexico have plans to take pipeline capacity on pipelines within Mexico. Is this possible with CFE holding most of the capacity?
7. What things need to happen to signal the market to incentivize production growth and drilling?
8. What factors, other than price, influence your decision to choose one supplier over another?