2023 US Mexico Agenda

Mexico, once again, will engage a major election in 2024. There is a presidential race, as well as a renewal of both chambers of congress, and nine governorships in addition to thousands of local races. This election is a test over whether Mexico continues to withdraw into a more authoritarian, centralist, populist, and nationalist position or whether it manages to reverse some of these negative trends, reaffirming its democratic vocation and reengaging export-led growth, perhaps with a more robust welfare state. There are two clear visions for the country, one represented by Mr. López Obradror's handpicked potential successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, and the other represented by the PAN-PRI-PRD coalition in the candidacy of Senator Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz, although the outcome by ultimately be a continued division right down the middle. Any of these three scenarios are key for investors in every sector, from manufacturing to energy, to understand their strategies for their future in Mexico. This talk is designed to present all three scenarios—what they would look like and what businesses should prepare for.

•The current state of Mexico’s natural gas market and how shifts in global and Mexico natural gas market fundamentals impact purchases of U.S. gas.
•Trends in Mexico natural gas market development (tenders, open seasons, storage) and ongoing infrastructure projects including U.S.-sourced LNG export projects, natural gas pipelines and combined cycle plants.
•Where the market is headed in the next five years, including forward prices at points key to Mexico.
•What to expect with the upcoming elections, the promise and challenges of nearshoring, and how this might impact Mexico and natural gas.

This panel will examine various paths to achieving energy decarbonization by leveraging alternative energy sources derived from natural gas, including Certified Gas; Differentiated Gas; Responsibility Sourced Gas (RSG); Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS); Hydrogen (H2). The panel will also review methods to capture and contain carbon including Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS). Connective infrastructure to transport these alternative energy sources, including new facilities and repurposing existing assets, will also be examined. Relative representative economics of the various alternatives will also be explored.

García Alcocer will present an overview of the recent history of natural gas in Mexico, focusing on the evolution from a partially open market prior to 2017 to a fully integrated one with the United States. As the presentation nears its conclusion, we will delve into a discussion about the significance of natural gas within the context of nearshoring.

Nearshoring in Mexico has turned out to be an attractive alternative to solve the disruption in global supply chains. With around $42 billion in foreign direct investment, expectations indicate that northern Mexico will become an industrial hub that will require creative solutions to navigate through a complex regulatory framework to meet energy demands. Despite the economic boom this will represent, government policies have shown a different dynamic, generating challenges that companies will have to overcome. This talk will focus on the current circumstances of the natural gas market for investment and development projects from a legal and regulatory point of view.

Guillermo will talk to us about the demand for natural gas coming from Mexico. This will include re exporting natural gas as LnG, industrial and power demand. How do these plans pare with the demand for export projects from Texas and Louisiana?

MEXICO LNG SUPERPOWER: With two projects under construction and at least eight more proposed, Mexico could become the world’s fourth largest LNG exporter by the end of the decade. Once a major LNG importer, Mexico is now poised to send out its first export cargo by the end of the year. This panel will explore various aspects affecting successful completion of these projects. Sources of feedgas for the terminals, including domestic Mexico supply, as well as imports from the United States. Regulatory/policy impacts including steps project developers need to take to earn support from CFE and the AMLO administration. Also, changes anticipated with a new administration. Concerns from domestic gas consumers over LNG exports competing for supply. How much incremental midstream infrastructure will be required to support LNG exports, who will build it, and is there political support to get it done.

Please join our hosts, the Corporate Sponsors, at a cocktail reception in your honor. Don’t make your dinner plans too early as hors d’oeuvres and an open bar will be the highlight of this extremely well attended session!

Katy will be reviewing EIA’s forecast in the November 2023 STEO for natural gas production, consumption, exports and imports, including LNG, through 2024.

There are several ports along the U.S. / Mexico border that serve as vital gateways for trade between the U.S. and Mexico. Both imports and exports through these ports have been growing steadily. With Mexico's adoption of a nearshoring strategy, significant growth in industrial activity is anticipated, along with demands for energy to fuel the activity. These ports can be expected to be key routes for imports originating in the U.S. and exports of new goods from Mexico. This panel will identify the various ports, and will examine the opportunities available for the Port and plans to accommodate the growing volume of trade.