Agenda

Jim Redford will take you back to the future when he tells the story of the history of underground natural gas storage at the Dawn Hub, and traces its importance to today and into the future. Jim will highlight how the facility plays a crucial energy supply role – along with other vital innovations at Union Gas – as we move through an energy crossroads brought about by the move to a low carbon society and continue to supply much-needed energy to our partners.

The introduction of the Rover pipeline into Midwest and Dawn markets, coupled with the impending construction of NEXUS, will continue and exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance at Dawn.  How does this translate back to Western Canadian producers, now do LNG export prospects factor in, and what are the long-term prospects for Canadian gas consumers?  Following on RBN Energy's "Connecting the Dots" theme from its School of Energy, Rick will explore how all these pieces fit together and where the market might go as a result.

The Panel will discuss several aspects affecting the Region:
"Gorilla in the Room for Canadian Market - U.S. gas production growth from the U.S. Northeast and elsewhere"
     
- Efficiency gains of Northeast production and Northeast pipeline buildout
- Price impact to key Canadian export price hubs in the U.S. 
- Role of U.S. gas exports to absorb supply
- Going forward, what could slow down U.S. production growth or make it more expensive?
- Upstream sweet spot exhaustion
- Cost of future pipelines
- Debt financing catching up with E&P companies

- BC shale gas - Competitive vs US Shale
- Regulatory and Carbon initiatives: Clean Canadian gas
- Energy and Chemical opportunities - building on the best feedstock 

West Canada supply/demand balance still points to bearish future for AECO:
- However, the recent slide in AECO futures basis for this winter and next summer may be unwarranted given the expected increase in receipt capabilities in Alberta and renewed contracts on TransCanada’s mainline system that will revive available downstream capacity. Returned rig activity and stronger IP rates should provide upside potential to West Canada production over the next year. Risks in getting this production to market still persist from existing contracts on TCPL Mainline, which are expected to continue to roll off, as well as oil sands demand growth and competition out of the Bakken.

The 2018 Winter Forecast with a "twist"…using similar methods to determine the 2008 and 2010 winter forecasts could be a good analog for determining the 2018 forecast…involving global cyclones. What will the winter bring and how can we plan for the 2018 Winter Weather Effects?

Hear the most recent project updates from the Region, affecting the Region and beyond!! There have been many advancements in the past year and there are still changes coming so get ready for insight and updates that will affect your buying and selling of natural gas in 2018 and for years to come!

Enbridge projects in development update
-Northeast & New England
-Appalachian Shale Basin
-Southeast & Gulf Coast regions
-Spotlight update on NEXUS project

Summary of recently completed TransCanada Mainline expansions in the Eastern Triangle
-Status of TransCanada expansion projects currently underway
-Planned TransCanada expansion for 2019
-Dawn LTFP service
-NGTL System update

Birth of Dawn! 75th Anniversary of Dawn Storage
Natural gas infrastructure developments in Ontario including Storage, Transmission and major Distribution completed in 2017

Corporations and governments ignoring energy fundamentals risk making business and policy decisions which result in lack of competitiveness, high costs, bankruptcy, deficits, unemployment and regime change. For corporations, the result is quick and merciful; for governments and ratepayers, a slower decline ensues.

Much of the policy mindset in Canada (and other jurisdictions) was adopted during a period of energy scarcity and high prices, and has not been adapted to the current low cost and unconstrained reality. Why aren’t decision makers paying attention to cost, competitive and physical fundamentals? Are current policies sustainable? What are the primary drivers for energy policy?

Please join our hosts, the Corporate Sponsors, at a cocktail reception in your honor. Don’t make your dinner plans too early as hors d’oeuvres and an open bar will be the highlight of this extremely well attended session!

The US is on the cusp of explosive natural gas demand, particularly in export markets, while the marketplace still views natural gas as a by-product of shale oil production.  Is the market right, expecting US shale oil growth to provide sufficient supplies of natural gas to meet any demand scenario, or is the market wrong and overly optimistic about oil prices and US oil supply growth?  If the market is right… no worries!  But if the market is wrong, how will the US meet surging natural gas demand?

The elections of the past two years placed North America more firmly into an era where politics has become more important than policy, rhetoric than reality, and personality than government experience. How this has played out in Canada with the elections in Alberta, Federally, and most recently, British Columbia as well as in the United States tells us a lot about the stability of government institutions. In the case of the United States, the durability of the systems put into place by the founding fathers almost 250 years ago have acted as a foil to attempts to deregulate key industries. We now must balance the “twitterization” of policy with the reality of regulators, courts, and legislators. Industry has to manage rhetoric without becoming blinded to the real risks to business.  How will North America emerge from the Trudeau-Trump era? Will businesses and economies grow due to reduced regulatory burdens or have legislative mandates behind those regulations created a web from which it is near impossible to escape? How to manage an industry with a complex global supply chain in an era of uncertainty? Not to mention the unknown unknowns. Both Canada and the United States are experiencing leadership with a preference towards disruption, and in that way this era is unlike any other in North American history. Putting it into the context of historical institutions, looking for the policy inside the politics, is the goal of this discussion.

Our gas buyer panelists will give you solid and valuable insight into what is currently working, what they have learned from volatility and what they will do differently next time. Topics of discussion to include:
1. Given the low-price environment, what contracting and hedging strategies are you implementing (e.g. long term vs. short term)?
2. How have increasing gas supplies from shale affected your gas purchasing and contracting practices? Are new shale-related transportation options living up to your expectations?
3. With renewables increasing their share of power generation, how does this affect your business?
4. Will LNG exports increase from North America, and how will this affect your purchasing strategies?
5. How does cancellation of Energy East, and the shift of the NEB project approval criteria affect your business?     
6. Have you changed your storage strategies given the low-price environment and supply availability? What are your storage plans for 2018 and 2019?
7. How predictable is your gas consumption?
8. How are you dealing with Cap and Trade? Will the costs flow through to the customer or be absorbed?
9. What factors, other than price, influence your decision to choose one supplier over another?